Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels leads the pack of contenders for his job, but heading into the Aug. 18 primary, the other candidates are in a dead heat, according to a new poll.

The survey also shows that Referendum 1, the 20-cent bag tax, faces serious opposition.

Results indicate Nickels leading with 23 percent. The other candidates are:

Joe Mallahan: 11 percent

James Donaldson: 10 percent

Jan Drago: 9 percent

Mike McGinn: 9 percent

Conducted by researchers at the University of Washington the week of July 28-Aug. 3, the poll reached 600 registered voters in Seattle by phone.

Balloting in the nonpartisan race has begun but turnout is expected to be low, and more than one third of survey respondents said they were undecided, according to Matt Barreto, a UW assistant professor of political science who led the researchers.

Nickels is the leading vote getter, but 50 percent of voters have an unfavorable impression of him, compared to 40 percent favorable, according to the poll.

"Nickels remains ahead of the pack and will make the runoff, but it's not clear who his challenger will be," Barreto said. "There is a strong four-way race for second place, and any one of the four challengers could make the runoff. It depends entirely on candidates' ability to mobilize supporters."

Asked about the bag tax, 55 percent of voters said they oppose it, whereas 41 said they're in favor. The tax would require grocery, drug and convenience stores to collect 20 cents for every disposable shopping bag provided to customers. Stores with annual gross sales under $1 million could keep fees to cover their costs. Other stores could keep 25 percent of fees and would send the city the remainder to support garbage reduction and recycling programs. The stores would get a business-tax deduction for the fees.

"Although Seattle is a progressive and environmentally aware city, tax increases are very hard to sell during a major recession," Barreto said.

Asked to list and rank the most important issues facing Seattle, respondents said:

1. The Alaskan Way viaduct.

2. General transportation issues.

3. Jobs and the economy.

4. Taxes.

5. Schools and education.

Funds for the survey came from research budgets at UW. The poll sampling error margin is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Full results of the poll are at http://www.washingtonpoll.org.

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For more information, contact Barreto at 909-489-2955 or mbarreto@u.washington.edu.